Dissolution of the nuclear non-proliferation regime

CHALLENGE

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АНИМЭЙТ v.3.7

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The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3) expires in February 2021. If START-3 expires without replacement or extension, Moscow and Washington for the first time in half a century will not have a valid bilateral strategic nuclear arms control treaty. At the same time, neither side intends to revive the system of agreements on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons without the participation of other powers in it.

In turn, the other countries of the nuclear club are not eager to impose themselves on international obligations that would limit their freedom in the development of nuclear weapons to some extent. Thus, the dismantling of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime in 2021 may be inevitable.

The world needs a more comprehensive agreement on further restrictions on nuclear weapons with the inclusion of new countries and weapons systems.

98

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Probability Estimate

Questions for experts

Given that the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) expires in February 2021, is there any reason to talk about the complete dismantling of the nuclear non-proliferation regime?

Given the complete absence of a system of international obligations to limit nuclear weapons, what could the nuclear arms race lead to?

In your opinion, is there a possibility for the establishment of a new regime limiting nuclear weapons in 2021? Besides the US and Russia, will China and other members of the nuclear club be willing to enter this agreement? Will the members of the nuclear club be ready to accept such obligations?

Please describe the basic scenarios for the development of the nuclear non-proliferation regime in 2021 (baseline, positive and negative).

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