COVID-19 has been the hardest challenge for the global community. Harsh restrictive measures by almost all countries allowed to slow down the pace of the virus spread.
Today, many countries have passed the first critical peak, and the situation is steadily stabilizing. However, it is too early to declare a complete victory. The first signs of the onset of the second wave of pandemic have already begun to appear, while the COVID-19 vaccine has not yet been developed.
98
%
Probability Estimate
Coronavirus is often compared to the last pandemic experienced by mankind - the Spanish flu, which has had three waves of increasing incidence over several years. Patterns of such viruses indicate that a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is inevitable.
What happens if a new version of a virus leads to another wave of pandemic and makes the vaccine, which is still being developed, ineffective?
At the same time, the outbreak of COVID-19 may not be the only one in the near future. In addition, the global outbreaks of other familiar dangerous diseases are not excluded. In July 2020, outbreaks of bubonic plague were recorded in Mongolia and China.
At the same time, it is highly likely that unexplored negative effects of the new coronavirus on human health will emerge, and as a consequence will deteriorate global economic situation.
Questions for experts
What can cause a new full-scale wave of pandemic?
In your opinion, will the world community be better prepared for the second wave of the pandemic?
Wil thel international community be able to take control of the situation in case of mutation or new strain of the virus? How realistic is it to expect that a vaccine will still help if the virus mutates? Is there a possibility of the outbreak of a new coronavirus in 2020?
What will be the consequences of the new wave of COVID-19 for the economy, health systems and international cooperation?
Please describe the basic scenarios for the development of the situation in case of the new coronavirus pandemic (baseline, positive and negative).
EXPERT REVIEWS
YUN BYUNG-SE
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea (2013-2017)
Actually, I think your report on top-10 major risks for the next year is a very good guideline. The risks are well summarized.
JOHANNES F. LINN
Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Distinguished Resident Scholar of the Emerging Markets Forum
Congratulations for a very interesting document. It is striking that one top risk that the report identified - military conflict with Iran - is turning out to represent the first serious crisis of global significance this early in the year 2020.
BANDID NIJATHAWORN
chairman of the Foundation for Public Policy and Good Governance, Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand
It was a pleasure and an honor to participate in the project. Congratulations on the excellent document produced. A number of risks mentioned in the report are already gaining ground. I will circulate the report widely to opinion leaders in Asia and Australia.
VUK JEREMIĆ
President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) President of the 67th session of the UN GA (2012-2013) Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia (2007-2012)
The ones that you picked are spot-on, none of the things that you put down surprised me, but it was really impressive in the way that you described it, I think you captured it rather well.
IFTEKHAR CHOWDHURY
Foreign Minister of Bangladesh (2007-2009) Principal Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore
First of all, may I congratulate you on your publication. It is tremendous publication. You did a very good work and it was very supporting for the proceedings and for the conference.
MARC UZAN
Executive Director and Founder of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC)
The world in 2019 is facing so many challenges and opportunities: from trade wars to the revival of the Silk Road. This is a must-read report for those interested in Eurasia affairs.
ASLE TOJE
Member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (Nobel Peace Prize)
The risk report succinctly summarizes the known challenges that could destabilize global security in the short to medium term. While some readers will find the emphasis surprising, the report represents the most up to date discourses in international security. A common theme is the forces being unleashed by the shift in global power structures, which creates uncertainty with regards to American willingness to police the international order. This may encourage risky behaviour among great powers and regional powers alike.
Info@top10risks.org
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