The pandemic significantly undermined the already fragile attempts at trade reconciliation between the United States and China. President Trump, in the light of allegations of inability to control the spread of COVID-19 infection and in the face of upcoming elections, decided to redirect a barrage of informational negativity towards the PRC. It is worth recognizing the attempt was successful to some extent and nullified the progress achieved in the negotiations at the beginning of the year.
American rhetoric pivots on the version that China deliberately concealed the outbreak of coronavirus in the initial stages, and this caused present consequences.
98
%
As a result, the White house responds asymmetrically. President Trump may impose “pre-virus” tariffs against China, which will definitely worsen the crisis in US-Chinese relations in 2021. Chinese response to this and the further escalation of the confrontation could grow into a cold war between the countries.
Probability Estimate
A powerful leap in technological competition triggered by the pandemic is becoming an accelerator of geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. A new state of relations between the US and China risks transforming into a new cold war that will affect the entire world economy and politics for many years.
Questions for experts
In your opinion, how will US-China trade relations and their technological rivalry develop in 2021?
How will the US presidential election affect the paths of relations between countries? What is the likelihood of an escalation of the confrontation in 2021?
What areas of the relationship will be most affected by the potential US-China cold war?
What could be the consequences and how protracted can the new “cold war” between the US and China be? Is there a possibility that confrontation between western and Chinese producers of 5G technology will lead to the war of standards in 2021?
Please describe the basic scenarios of a possible “cold war” between the US and China in 2021 (baseline, positive and negative).
EXPERT REVIEWS
YUN BYUNG-SE
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea (2013-2017)
Actually, I think your report on top-10 major risks for the next year is a very good guideline. The risks are well summarized.
JOHANNES F. LINN
Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Distinguished Resident Scholar of the Emerging Markets Forum
Congratulations for a very interesting document. It is striking that one top risk that the report identified - military conflict with Iran - is turning out to represent the first serious crisis of global significance this early in the year 2020.
BANDID NIJATHAWORN
chairman of the Foundation for Public Policy and Good Governance, Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand
It was a pleasure and an honor to participate in the project. Congratulations on the excellent document produced. A number of risks mentioned in the report are already gaining ground. I will circulate the report widely to opinion leaders in Asia and Australia.
VUK JEREMIĆ
President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) President of the 67th session of the UN GA (2012-2013) Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia (2007-2012)
The ones that you picked are spot-on, none of the things that you put down surprised me, but it was really impressive in the way that you described it, I think you captured it rather well.
IFTEKHAR CHOWDHURY
Foreign Minister of Bangladesh (2007-2009) Principal Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore
First of all, may I congratulate you on your publication. It is tremendous publication. You did a very good work and it was very supporting for the proceedings and for the conference.
MARC UZAN
Executive Director and Founder of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC)
The world in 2019 is facing so many challenges and opportunities: from trade wars to the revival of the Silk Road. This is a must-read report for those interested in Eurasia affairs.
ASLE TOJE
Member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (Nobel Peace Prize)
The risk report succinctly summarizes the known challenges that could destabilize global security in the short to medium term. While some readers will find the emphasis surprising, the report represents the most up to date discourses in international security. A common theme is the forces being unleashed by the shift in global power structures, which creates uncertainty with regards to American willingness to police the international order. This may encourage risky behaviour among great powers and regional powers alike.
Info@top10risks.org
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