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Forecasts for 2020, portending a global economic recession, paid off. Despite the fact that the crisis was the result of completely unexpected processes and events, one can safely assume that in 2021 the situation will only worsen. The crisis has every chance of escalating into a total collapse that will have a devastating effect on the entire world economy: declining demand, unprecedented level of unemployment, poverty and inequality, extreme public debts, declining production, stagnation in tourism, changes in production and supply chains.
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Emerging markets will be hit hardest in this crisis. They are the least prepared for the multi-shocks of COVID-19, which will primarily affect growth drivers. The fall in oil prices, decline in world trade, simultaneous shocks in supply and demand - the growth pillars of many countries are disrupted, and all of this can lead to severe economic depression.
Probability Estimate
In the first place, it is essential to understand how protracted and deep the new great depression can be, how world trade and supply chains will be rebuilt, which sectors will be able to bring global economy on a stable trajectory, how far the gap between developing countries will widen, and what will be the consequences of a new peak of global inequality.
Questions for experts
What are the effects of the pandemic on the global economy, and how quickly can the global market recover?
How will the production chains, foreign economic and trade relations between the countries of Eurasia be reconstructed after the pandemic?
What impact will a pandemic and global economic crisis have on emerging economies? What long the recovery may take for these countries?
What impact will a pandemic and global economic crisis have on emerging economies? What long the recovery may take for these countries?
Can a second wave of pandemic and repeated shutdown lead to a new Great Depression? What will be the key changes in the global economy during the post-pandemic period?
What impact will a pandemic and global economic crisis have on emerging economies? What long the recovery may take for these countries?