The most likely challenges for Eurasia in 2021
99
%
NEW GREAT DEPRESSION
The crisis caused by the pandemic has every chance of escalating into a total collapse and triggering a New Great Depression.
01
Challenge
98
%
US-CHINA COLD WAR
Tensions in Sino-American relations are gaining momentum and laying the premises of a new cold war.
02
Challenge
97
%
THW PANDEMIC 2.0.
The coronavirus pandemic may not be the only disease that again will paralyze the world in the near future.
03
Challenge
88
%
WAR AGAINST IRAN
The pandemic that exacerbated the crisis in Iranian-American relations could trigger the largest conflict in the Middle East.
04
Challenge
93
%
DECOUPLING
The West intends to reduce the strategic dependence on China, which was severely revealed during the period of worldwide quarantines.
92
%
DESSOLUTION OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME
After February 2021, for the first time since the 70s, the world will enter the period without a single agreement limiting the stockpiling of nuclear weapons.
90
%
EXPLODING SOCIAL PROTESTS
Widening inequality and unemployment could trigger a wave of uncontrollable social protests worldwide.
07
Challenge
05
Challenge
06
Challenge
87
%
GLOBAL CYBER CRISIS
The vulnerability of the global cyberspace, which grows along with the accelerated technological development, may become one of the main challenges of 2021.
91
%
DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM
The increased role of technologies in government activities can be the beginning of total digital control of society.
09
Challenge
08
Challenge
EXPERT REVIEWS
YUN BYUNG-SE
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea (2013-2017)
Actually, I think your report on top-10 major risks for the next year is a very good guideline. The risks are well summarized.
JOHANNES F. LINN
Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Distinguished Resident Scholar of the Emerging Markets Forum
Congratulations for a very interesting document. It is striking that one top risk that the report identified - military conflict with Iran - is turning out to represent the first serious crisis of global significance this early in the year 2020.
BANDID NIJATHAWORN
chairman of the Foundation for Public Policy and Good Governance, Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand
It was a pleasure and an honor to participate in the project. Congratulations on the excellent document produced. A number of risks mentioned in the report are already gaining ground. I will circulate the report widely to opinion leaders in Asia and Australia.
VUK JEREMIĆ
President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) President of the 67th session of the UN GA (2012-2013) Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia (2007-2012)
The ones that you picked are spot-on, none of the things that you put down surprised me, but it was really impressive in the way that you described it, I think you captured it rather well.
IFTEKHAR CHOWDHURY
Foreign Minister of Bangladesh (2007-2009) Principal Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore
First of all, may I congratulate you on your publication. It is tremendous publication. You did a very good work and it was very supporting for the proceedings and for the conference.
MARC UZAN
Executive Director and Founder of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC)
The world in 2019 is facing so many challenges and opportunities: from trade wars to the revival of the Silk Road. This is a must-read report for those interested in Eurasia affairs.
ASLE TOJE
Member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (Nobel Peace Prize)
The risk report succinctly summarizes the known challenges that could destabilize global security in the short to medium term. While some readers will find the emphasis surprising, the report represents the most up to date discourses in international security. A common theme is the forces being unleashed by the shift in global power structures, which creates uncertainty with regards to American willingness to police the international order. This may encourage risky behaviour among great powers and regional powers alike.
RISK INDICATOR 2019
90
%
Escalation of the US-China military and political confrontation
01
RISK
99
%
Full-scale trade wars
02
RISK
95
%
The Great War in the Middle East
03
RISK
Further deterioration of relations between Russia and the West
04
RISK
97
%
Defrosting of ‘hot spots’ in Eurasia
05
RISK
92
%
Growth of separatism and ethno-religious conflicts
06
RISK
93
%
Aggravation of ecological and water challenges
07
RISK
85
%
Growth and evolution of cyber threats
08
РИСК
87
%
Beginning of a new arms race
09
RISK
85
%
Large nuclear and man-made disasters
10
RISK
75
%
RISKS IN 2019
RISK INDICATOR 2020
85
%
Aftershocks of the 2020 US Presidential Election
01
RISK
99
%
Global economic recession
02
RISK
99
%
Escalation of the US-China confrontation
03
RISK
А new stage of the nuclear missile race
04
RISK
99
%
Exacerbation of the battle for technological dominance
05
RISK
97
%
Military escalation of the conflict around Iran
06
RISK
93
%
Nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula
07
RISK
85
%
A new wave of terrorism
08
РИСК
76
%
Aggressive nationalism and populism
09
RISK
96
%
Large-scale climate change problems
10
RISK
92
%
RISKS IN 2020
Info@top10risks.org
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